Albertans Have Chosen Instability This Election
What has Alberta decided in this election? Obviously that a two-party political system is here and it's preferred to the 118 years of our one-party state.
What isn't clear is if We the Citizens will be well served and governed by a two-party system. What will be the consequences of the two-party system where a majority government is guaranteed but stability, certainty, and responsible government is not assured.
How did we get here? This link is an interesting read on the Alberta ballot behaviours who were not Ideological partisans.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-election-ucp-ndp-vote-compass-ideology-partisanship-competence-1.6863814
The majority of the 172,000 Alberta Party moderate voters from 2019 apparently lent their vote to for Rachel Notley this time. They wanted to help her personally defeat Smith, more than lend support to the NDP as a party.
I suspect that Alberta Party pragmatism to support Rachel Notley was a significant portion of the 155,000 increase in NDP vote totals.
The majority of the Reluctant UCP of 2019 seems to have returned to the conservative option, even though they were not impressed with Smith. Some stayed home and that may account for the drop in voter turnout from 2019.
It was too far a walk for most of them to support the NDP Social Democrat ideology, even though they liked Notley. They retreated back to Conservativism even though they found the Smith version of that philosophy very disquieting.
The upshot from this election is we have made a decision on who governs us, but in the fog of a dramatically divided outcome. We don't have a conclusion about how we wish to be governed. It's more than a question of style. It's about the agenda and the priorities of the governing party. Time will tell.
And we may have left an open question about leadership. WHO will actually be governing us with so many self-serving overly influential factions behind Smith?.Both party leaders are safe for now but job security is not assured for Smith. And while Notley is the NDP party, how much more fire is in her?
Elections are about making choices. Albertans chose this time to accept volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity as our new normal.
It is often said that in a democracy we always get the government we deserve. In not so sure this time. We in a self-inflicted politically indeterminate stage. We haven't gone conclusively left or right, but we aren't clear about how to go forward yet either.
I'm thinking - in the infamous words of the comeback kid story everyone loves to implement:
"It's the economy, stupid." - Bill Clinton
Rachel Notley did a stellar job given the economy of time, her conversion of the world view of Alberta hydrocarbons; she bought rail cars, did a stellar job converting coal-fired to gas-fired power plants, fought the biggest fire ever, as the world prices for our products were in the toilet. And, got a pipeline deal. What did that earn for her? The UCP didn't acknowledge what her scandal-free government did with zero-veteran ministers, that debt was required to balance things out for Alberta.
The UCP chose to paint them as growers of debt and stewards of a tough-times economy as if they created it. They didn't, but Ms. Smith called them accountable for it without accepting any Prentice-era responsibility for the 2008 financial crisis the world endured, etc ...
It's the economy, it's timing, and 'who tells the story best'
Notley, with four years of evidence, governed well.
Crazy lady Danielle has governed like an overheated pingpong ball at the pingpong ball factory for 7 seven months on hard-to-swallow takes on most things for which she deserves zero praise.
She blames Ottawa, Liberals and NDP for everything she can, and she knows which tunes to play when the economy is going our way, and the Clinton playbook did it for her.
Now, for four years or less, she's going to do it to us!
For me, if her caucus can see clearly, they will realize they have zero chance of forming a credible majority government without Calgary, Edmonton, a strong economy, a strong energy industry, and confidence they have a steady hand on the tiller. That equation, if it includes Danielle Smith is charting a course for electoral disaster. If they see that, she'll be overboard. The question then becomes, not one of 'if not her, then who?' - but instead, is the UCP united and conservative - or is it something else that either splits into two camps, two parties, or too bad - they are headed to extinction because the crazies Smith tolerates or willfully ignores try to TAKE BACK ALBERTA to a place it's NEVER BEEN - and Albertans won't stand for that.
Excellent analyses as always Ken. My vote placed a priority on leadership although I think unions and large public service pensions are notbin the best interest of Albertans. I also did not like the potential 300% increase in Alberta's debt-to-GDP ratio, which Todd Hirsch proposed to plug the gap between revenue and spending.
Mortgaging our future is not the way forward. Jim Prentice had it right. Albertans want excellent services and low taxes. Norway has required government services to be paid for by taxes - and banking their non-renewable resource revenue has bestowed upon their citizens a $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
My dream is for Albertans to begin to play the collaborative, infinite game of improving the well-being of all Albertans while holding politicians and ourselves to account. Onward!🇨🇦