IS A TWO-PARTY ALBERTA GOVERNABLE?

We believe the myth that majority governments mean political stability. But we are WRONG!

WILL ALBERTA BE GOVERNABLE?

Alberta has reached a moment of existential uncertainty.  We have come to realize that our problems and challenges  are bigger than any one political ideology or world view can resolve. In fact, this election is spotlighting the deep tensions and challenges in Alberta. We are polarized, fragmented, regionalized, and in our political processes, perceptions and practices are not up to the tasks at hand.  

We must now, more than ever, step back from the daily chaos, terrifying headlines, ubiquitous misinformation and partisan manipulation and think deeper, broader and more  future-forward about the basic structures and processes in Alberta’s democracy.  Make no mistake about it, the sustainability of Alberta's democracy is on the ballot this election.

These are existential questions for all Albertans, regardless of mindset or ideological bias. Right now, with an election of great consequence looming over us, we have to awaken to our roles and take up our responsibilities of citizenship and become more aware and better informed voters.  

All indications are this is a two-party race.  That means either the Left or the Right will be forming a majority government this June.  The polls also indicate the overall results will be close, so that the winner’s majority might be slim, shallow and unstable.  That means the leadership focus will be more about self preservation and keeping their party base happy, rather than delivering good government for the rest of us.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

We have the embedded and diabolical First Past the Post democracy- distorting election system in Alberta that has always delivered majority governments.  But since about 2008, these majority governments have been very unstable.  This time, with only two viable party options, and depending on voter turnout, we could have the political party with the largest popular vote not forming the next government.   

How could this undemocratic outcome happen to us? It’s all about the distribution of political power at the provincial level.  For example, Alberta has a heavily rural-biased distribution of Legislature seats.  That is not based on population and has been justified in the past due long distances MLAs needed to travel to keep in touch with constituents. So seats get defined based on geography not population.

That time and distance problem could be overcome, in part, if we had a government really delivered on the on-going promise to bring high speed internet throughout the province.  

Because the rural and remote Albertans are overly represented in the Legislature, sitting governments tend to pay more political attention to them, but not necessarily to offer more solutions to their real and legitimate issues.  Because of this attention and weighted distribution, they have, in aggregate, significantly more political power and influence than the more populated places in the province.  This skews the political culture in so many ways, including the pathways to power. 

On the other hand, we have rapidly growing major and mid-sized cities with different, but always complex demands.  What is different is the urban areas must compete with each other for provincial attention and assistance. That attention and assistance is too often distributed by the party in power based on the political support and seats they received from those cities. 

The practical pathway to political power for a party in Alberta has been to dominate the election results in two of three options, Edmonton, Calgary, or rural Alberta. The challenge for an effective government is to overcome the regional frictions and find ways to function with the proper balance based on real public service need not on relative political power.

WHERE ARE WE GOING?

In the 2015 provincial election, the NDP won a surprising majority government victory, supplanting over 44 years of continuous Conservative rule.  We have since evolved into a de facto two-party province that is looking more like the American divisive political culture model every day.  

And the collective “wisdom” from the major partisan “political combatants” seems to be that when we vote, we must choose only between a Left or a Right option. We are being told by the Left and the Right there is no room for any third party alternatives for fear of splitting the vote.  This fear is that any voting for a third option, in this election, means the “Other” party, also known as the “Enemy,” will come up the middle and get all the political power. So people are being told to vote “strategically” based on their fears instead of their issues and aspirations.  What could possibly go wrong?

This all brings up the existential question of what will our Alberta politics and political culture be like after this election? If the final election results are as close as the polls suggest, We the Citizens will end up with a slim and shallow majority government of one ideology or another.  That is a recipe for disaster, regardless of the political stripe of the so-called winner.

Will there be constant campaigning, organized constant protesting, and political-party propaganda wars with a generous dose of destabilizing internal partisan strife?  Will the newly elected government have the skills, talent, ability, capacity, or even the inclination, to deliver the public services Albertans need and expect after this election? 

The inevitable result will be further regional social and economic divisiveness, more polarized political animosity, and increased economic instability.  None of this pursuit and perpetuation of political power focus will enhance the delivery of effective government and the ability to get things done. 

This could create the conditions for a wake-up call for the majority of Albertans, who are in the Moderate Middle, to activate their roles and responsibilities of citizenship and press for real prosocial positive change.  I am intrigued by the possibilities but not naive about the challenges. I am inspired by the advice of R. Buckminster Fuller who said

 “You never change things by fighting the existing reality.  To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

That is the mantra for CITIZENSHIP MATTERS going forward.  If your rights matter to you, if you see your role in society is a civic duty, if you are ready, willing and able to commit to taking some personal responsibility to help co-create the next Alberta, then join us.  You can start by subscribing to CITIZENSHIP MATTERS at kenchapman.substack.com.  

I am ken@rebootalberta.com and at 780 990-8559 if you want to talk first. Let’s find some time to chat.