Thoughts on the Calgary By-election

The federal riding of Calgary Heritage by-election is Monday. Does it matter?

By-elections are pretty much non events, especially for a federal seat in Calgary that has elected CON-servative leaders in the past.

But there are still tea leaves to read into this one. Last election Calgary elected a Liberal but they came third behind the NDP in this riding. What will be the relative standings this time? Will they be large enough to even matter as a political message?

If so, what will that message be and to whom? Ideally we'd see a consolidated strategic NDP-Liberal behind one candidate.

While I'm a federal Liberal I have no preference for which party should get the consolidated backing. If it's the Liberal, with a seriously significant number of votes, the message is to Poilievre. Don’t take Alberta for granted.

If it’s the NDP candidate that gathers the non-CON voters, the message is to Premier Smith, and also don't take Calgary for granted.

There are 8 candidates running, and 4 are in the Right. Will that split the CPC vote? Or will it bring out more far-right extremist voters who are playing for position in Alberta politics?

If course, it's summer and one by-election matters Diddley Squat to most nonpartisan citizens. So they stay home. Turnout will be low. But who shows, up within the partisans on the Right, will be interesting and important.

Fringe parties will be pushing to get our their vote. Poilievre’s people my sense it's in the bag. So they don't bother to show up.

And that would be a message to Moderate provincial oriented Alberta voters, in any and all scenarios?The hard-right is motivated and activated. Whereas we are resting on our tenuous and rebuttable presumptions and Alberta being predominantly Moderate politically.

While that Moderate majority is statistically true about Albertan values, statistics don't win elections. Organized, Activated, and Focused movements do win elections.

Regardless of the results on Monday, there will be important political messages being sent.

That should not be ignored. Not if you love Alberta as a Democracy.

The world is run by those who show up.