It is the first week of August. Last week, comments about Alberta’s place in Confederation have been relatively stable. I’ve not seen any dramatic changes in messages or events.
STEADY AS SHE GOES - NOT FOR ELECTIONS ALBERTA
The issues continue to receive sustained attention, mostly because the Referendum Vote and related processes have been active. Corb Lund is seeking a judicial review of the statistical margin-of-error approach to the petition verification process used by Elections Alberta. The Separatists are also disgruntled with Elections Alberta’s verification process. They are going the political route to see if there can be some legislative or regulatory changes to make the verification more robust and accurate.
That would likely mean a more extensive direct outreach to signatories to validate, verify and certify. The margin-of-error statistical approach applies to a random sample, but a random sample does not sign these petitions. People self-identify with the spirit and intent of the petition question.
I don’t see how the 95% “confidence level” of verification of hundreds of thousands of self-selecting citizens can be conclusive by extrapolating phone call results from under 400 participants. Those who responded are also unlikely to be distributed across all 87 constituencies. That is also a fatal flaw in the method used.
Recent polling suggests the momentum and enthusiasm behind the separatists’ movement has stalled, and may be in slight decline. There is no comfort for the federalist because we are a long way from October 19 voting day. A lot can happen to change the mood of Albertans between then and now.
In the meantime, it appears the separatist message has not become any more normalized. We are still waiting for the provincial detailed analysis of the transition and ongoing costs associated with separation. It was promised by the end of July. Will we get it before the end of the first week of August? I’m not holding my breath. We are also waiting for the separatist detailing transition and ongoing costs of separation. It was also promised before the end of July. I expect they will put off providing their creative, nonfiction, vague-assumption-filled analysis as long as they can. That way there will be less time for rebuttal by experts before the vote in late October.
FEDERALISTS GET SOME MOMENTUM - SEPARATISTS NOT SO MUCH
Media attention on the referendum voting has been close in the past week as Forever Canadian notes it has 18,000 active volunteers, 45,000 lawn signs have been distributed, and over 18,000 km have been travelled by the Unity bus as it visits communities all around the province.
Forever Canadian is not taking a side on voting for leaving or staying referendum votes. They would like to see both of Smith’s questions withdrawn and a simple vote on their question. It is on only one legitimate, verified and certified question. Media on the other key issues of provincial sovereignty, western alienation, constitutional processes and economic implications have had a moderate tone and volume.
The polling has been interesting as Albertans continue to show great interest in the separation debate. Leger found 73% want to stay in Canada, and Ipsos said 67% held that opinion.
GRIEVANCES ARE NOT GOING AWAY
The grievance political attitude prevails when it comes to energy policy, federal-provincial relations, equalization and the regulatory process for the separatists. The rhetorical threats of Trump against Canada are back in second place, behind the cost of living, as the top issues. That is the same all across the country and in all demographic segments.
Trade uncertainty isn’t as big a deal in Alberta because we have very little direct impact from Trump’s tariffs — so far. But the new threats of 50% tariffs on a wide array of goods will impact Alberta if Trump follows through. It is hard to say what the erratic, unstable President will do when his deadline of August 19 approaches.
Smith got a relatively rough ride in her Red Deer town hall last week. She tried to explain the facts of the separation and referendum processes to a crowd that was 80% separatists. She didn’t appease the beast.
SEPARATISTS LEADER ARE “ETHICALLY CHALLENGED”
The old-guard leadership of the separatist movement is now morally and ethically challenged. Modry has been found by a B.C. court to have breached trust and misdirected about $1.6 million of his mentally ill relatives’ money to his own purposes. The bloviating separatist legal counsel, Jeff Rath, is facing some more serious Law Society disciplinary hearings. The court has frozen $8.5 million of funds he allegedly transferred trust fund, from Indigenous clients intended to serve the needs of children, that he was the sole trustee of. Mitch Sylvestre has all but disappeared since he floated a conspiracy theory that King Charles III wants him killed. David Parker, the Alberta Christian Nationalist, has fled to Texas to avoid prosecution. Carmron Davies, the pro-51st State Republican Party of Alberta leader, has disappeared from public view too.
I expect little will change until school is back and the campaigns of misinformation and American interference in favour of separation will ramp up.
Stay tuned
Stay attuned
Don’t tune out!
Here is the haiku inspired by this post.
PENDING
When things get quiet,
It is not time to relax
It’s time to refresh.
Any wise woods on the legality and functionally of the prospective of the nomination of a UCP nominee in Calgary who has declared he will vote for separatism. How can such a person take an oath of office under such circumstances. Your wisdom?