WILL ALBERTANS SHOW UP AND VOTE?
Early Advance Poll results are encouraging
According to pollsters this Alberta election is close to call. Ironically, since it's only a two-party race, the winner is almost guaranteed to have a majority government.
Ironically again, it is a possibility that the winner could have fewer total votes than the loser. This would happen with a large concentration Edmonton turnout for the NDP. Add in a lower rural turnout for the UCP under Smith, because they would rather stay home than vote for her.
Then women and youth and visible minority Calgarians decide to show up in droves to support either Notley or the NDP. Even if they show up only in opposition to the UCP they default to the NDP this time. But it's not enough to dislodge the conservative Calgarians from winning seats. .
Voila, the NDP wins the popular vote but not the election. Second place candidates don't change things. Not saying this will happen, but it could. If it does happen, any Smith claim of a strong mandate to govern, lacks credibility. And chaos is a distinct possibility.
But that would not deter her from pushing her real political agenda into high gear, with the pedal to the metal, or should I say “meddle?” She must move hard and fast from day one to assert her power.
So how is the turnout this election? Well on day two of the advanced polls, with more than 100 minutes left before polls close, we are closing in on 300.000 ballots cast. That's impressive.
In 2019 the total advanced poll vote was 700,000. We could be halfway there in 2023, and 3 more advanced poll days left. I'm extrapolating, but if I am correct, this election voter turnout could exceed 2019. That was the second highest voter turnout in modern times.
Turnout means change is in the air. But what's driving the change? Fear of the political Other, aka the Enemy, is a driver. So is voting to avoid the incompetent Smith and the mean-spirited UCP political mindset.
There are many other change-driver reasons, many very personal, partisan, local or regional. The point is voter turnout, as indicated in advance poll volume, spells change. It just doesn't tell us why kind, the why, and the consequences of the changing times.
.