Can an Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Change Things?

It sure looks like it based on the Cardinal Research random poll.

In a very recent poll, between September 17-20, with 2626 randomly selected Albertans, done by Cardinal Research {cardinalresearch.ca} on our voting sentiments right now. Of decided voters, 43% would support the UCP and 36% would support the NDP. The separatist Republican Party of Alberta would likely bleed off support from the UCP, garnering 11% of the vote, with the Alberta Liberal at 5% and the Alberta Party at 4%. The Undecideds are 17%.

The separatist RPA is eating into Smith's support in rural Alberta. Because the RPA is taking votes from her, she is also more vulnerable in Calgary.

Interestingly, the separatist faction in her Base now has an alternative. They seem ready to abandon her coalition of separatists and fundamentalist religious zealots

The next part of the poll is even more interesting. Cardinal presumed the Alberta Party was victorious in getting Elections Alberta to change its name to the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party (APC), so they added that alternative to the poll. The results are astounding.

The rebranded Alberta Party could enjoy a revival far exceeding their previous high-water mark of four seats, three from floor crossers, and 10% of the popular vote in 2019.

When all respondents are included, the voting intentions are as follows: NDP 24%, APC 22%, UCP 20%, RPA 10%, ALP 5%, and 20% Undecided. However, when only decided voters are considered, the result shifts. The NDP is then at 30%, the APC at 28%, the UCP at 25%, the RPA at 11%, and the ALP at 4%.

Today, NDP support from decided voters is 36%, without the AP option. In Edmonton, it is 46%, in Calgary, 33%, and in the rest of Alberta, 29%. With the APC option, the NDP results are 30%, with 39% in Edmonton, 28% in Calgary, and 25% in the rest of Alberta. Overall, approximately 6% of NDP support for the APC option is lost

UCP decided to support, without the APC option, 43% in Edmonton 40%, Calgary 48%, and the rest of Alberta, 43%. They lose support to the Separatist Republican Party of Alberta, who have 11% support. That breaks down at 4% in Edmonton, 9% in Calgary and 18% in the rest of Alberta.

The UCP support, with the APC option, drops to 25% from 43%. Edmonton drops from 40% to 19%, Calgary falls from 48% to 28%, and the rest of Alberta falls from 43% to 27%. Including an Alberta Progressive Conservative option does not impact the RPA numbers.

HOPE IS NOT A ST

R TEGY BUT IT CAN CREATE A STRATEGY

So what's the upshot of all this? First, it is hypothetical, at this stage, that the Alberta Party name change will actually become the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party. But if it were to come to pass, the impact on Alberta's political culture would look dramatic.

All polls are essentially hypothetical at any time. However, this poll had a large sample of more than 2,600 and was truly random. It is not one of those feeble internet polls or polls from a panel subscribing to a pollster's website.

One poll does not determine the future of any of the Alberta parties. The 2023 election saw moderates abandon the Alberta Party and vote for the NDP, fearing vote splitting and allowing the UCP to win. It was a failed strategy. While the NDP gained 15 seats and Smith lost 11, she still formed a majority government and received 52% of the votes.

WILL THE REBRANDED ALBERTA PARTY SPLIT VOTES

Did the rebranded and revived Alberta Progressive Conservative Party split the NDP vote? Yes, modestly amongst decoded voters, about 5% across the Province. The real change is expected to occur in the impact on the UPC of the combined APC moderates and RPA separatists, who will leave the UCP.

Smith's UCP support amongst decided voters would drop from 43% to 25% with the advent of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party. She would go from 40% to 19% in Edmonton, from 48% to 28% in Calgary and from 43% to 27% in the rest of Alberta.

No wonder the UCP is pushing hard to prevent the Alberta Party from changing its name. They have sent out two Cease and Desist letters and filed a complaint with Elections Alberta, claiming property rights to the use of the words "progressive" and "conservative." The name decision is in the sole discretion of the Chief Electoral Officer. The Smith UCPs can complain, but she doesn't make the decision.

"We are called to be architects of the future, not its victims"

R. Buckminster Fuller